What is UPS’s on-time delivery rate for ground shipments? (2025 data)

UPS Ground achieved a 96.5% on-time delivery rate in December 2024, according to ShipMatrix’s independent audit—marking the seventh consecutive year UPS led the industry during peak season. This performance represents a slight decline from UPS’s 2023 rate of 98.7% but still positions UPS Ground as the most reliable ground shipping service, outperforming both FedEx Ground (91.8%) and USPS Ground Advantage (90.4%) during the same period.

Understanding how carriers measure and report on-time delivery helps merchants make informed shipping decisions and set realistic customer expectations.

Numbers at a glance

• 96.5% — UPS Ground on-time delivery rate (December 2024)
• 91.8% — FedEx Ground on-time rate (December 2024)
• 90.4% — USPS Ground Advantage on-time rate (December 2024)
• 69% — Customer Churn Risk
• 1-6 business days — Typical UPS Ground transit time
• Monday-Friday — Standard UPS Ground delivery schedule
• No service guarantee — UPS Ground offers no refund for late delivery
• 15 days — Claim window for guaranteed UPS services (Express/Air only)

Why on-time performance matters

Late deliveries directly impact customer satisfaction and repeat purchase rates. Studies show that 69% of consumers are less likely to shop with a retailer again after a poor delivery experience, while 38% will abandon their cart if delivery options don’t meet expectations.

For merchants, missed delivery promises create a cascade of operational costs: customer service inquiries increase by 40%, return rates climb, and negative reviews accumulate. Understanding carrier reliability helps businesses set accurate delivery expectations and choose the right shipping mix.

How UPS defines “on-time”

UPS measures on-time delivery against the committed delivery date shown at checkout and on tracking pages. For UPS Ground, this calculation follows specific business-day logic that excludes weekends and holidays from transit time.

Business-day vs. calendar-day logic

UPS Ground operates Monday through Friday, with weekend delivery available only in select metro areas or during peak season for an additional fee. When calculating transit time, UPS counts only business days—meaning a package shipped on Friday with 3-day Ground service would be due Wednesday, not Monday.

Exceptions and exclusions

UPS excludes certain scenarios from on-time calculations, including:

• Weather delays beyond carrier control
• Incorrect or incomplete addresses requiring correction
• Packages requiring adult signature when recipient unavailable
• Customs delays for international shipments
• Force majeure events (natural disasters, strikes, etc.)

These exceptions protect UPS from service guarantee claims on Express and Air services, though UPS Ground carries no guarantee regardless.

Weekend delivery nuances

While UPS Ground traditionally delivers Monday-Friday, the carrier has expanded Saturday delivery to residential addresses in many markets. However, Saturday delivery isn’t automatically included in standard Ground service—it requires specific selection and additional fees in most cases.

Latest publicly available figures (year-round & peak)

ShipMatrix’s December 2024 audit provides the most recent comprehensive carrier comparison, showing UPS Ground’s continued leadership in reliability.

Peak season snapshot (December 2024)

During the critical holiday shipping period, ground service performance ranked:

1. UPS Ground: 96.5% on-time
2. FedEx Ground: 91.8% on-time
3. USPS Ground Advantage: 90.4% on-time

These figures reflect the intense operational pressure of peak season, when daily package volumes can increase 40-50% above normal levels.

Year-round average trends

While comprehensive 2024 annual data isn’t yet available, historical patterns suggest year-round performance typically runs 1-2 percentage points higher than peak season rates. This would put UPS Ground’s estimated annual average around 97-98% for 2024.

Ground vs. Air comparison

UPS Express and Air services maintain higher on-time rates (typically 98-99%) due to guaranteed service levels and priority handling. However, these services cost 2-4x more than Ground, making reliability the key differentiator for cost-conscious shippers.

How to verify your own UPS Ground OTD

Merchants shouldn’t rely solely on industry averages—tracking your specific performance reveals opportunities for improvement and helps validate carrier selection.

Pulling data from UPS Billing Center

The UPS Billing Center provides detailed shipment history including tracking numbers, ship dates, delivery dates, and service types. To extract on-time data:

1. Log into your UPS Billing Center account
2. Navigate to “Reporting & Search”
3. Select date range and filter for Ground shipments
4. Export results to CSV format
5. Calculate days between ship date and delivery date
6. Compare against UPS’s committed delivery date

Building a simple OTD dashboard (CSV + pivot)

Once you’ve exported UPS data, create a basic dashboard using spreadsheet pivot tables:

Key metrics to track:

• Overall on-time percentage by month
• Performance by destination zone (1-8)
• On-time rate by package weight/size
• Seasonal performance variations
• Late delivery patterns (which days/routes struggle)

Sample pivot table structure:

• Rows: Month, Destination Zone
• Columns: On-Time (Yes/No)
• Values: Count of shipments, percentage

Setting tolerance thresholds

Establish clear performance thresholds that trigger action:

• Green (95%+): Acceptable performance
• Yellow (90-94%): Monitor closely, investigate patterns
• Red (<90%): Immediate action required—consider alternative carriers or service levels

Factors that influence Ground performance

Multiple variables affect UPS Ground reliability, many outside direct carrier control.

Zone-to-zone distance

UPS divides the continental US into 8 shipping zones based on distance from origin. Longer distances (zones 6-8) typically show 1-2% lower on-time rates due to increased handling and transit time. Cross-country shipments face higher risk of weather delays and sorting facility bottlenecks.

Pickup cut-off times

Late-day pickups often miss the evening sort, effectively adding one business day to transit time. UPS Ground pickups after 5 PM typically don’t enter the network until the following business day, impacting delivery commitments.

Seasonal network adjustments

During peak season (November-January), UPS temporarily adjusts service commitments and adds Saturday delivery to manage increased volume. These adjustments help maintain on-time performance but may extend standard transit times by one day.

Labor and weather variables

Regional weather events, labor shortages, and facility capacity constraints create localized performance variations. The 2024 holiday season saw minimal weather disruption, contributing to UPS’s strong 96.5% performance.

UPS Ground vs. competing services

Understanding competitive performance helps merchants optimize their carrier mix and set customer expectations.

FedEx Ground comparison

FedEx Ground’s 91.8% December 2024 on-time rate trails UPS by nearly 5 percentage points. FedEx Ground typically costs 5-10% less than UPS Ground but offers lower reliability. For price-sensitive, non-urgent shipments, this trade-off may be acceptable.

USPS Ground Advantage comparison

USPS Ground Advantage achieved 90.4% on-time performance in December 2024, though this drops to 84.7% when excluding Parcel Select last-mile deliveries. USPS offers the lowest rates but significantly lower reliability, making it suitable only for non-time-sensitive shipments.

When multi-carrier routing wins

Smart merchants use multiple carriers strategically:

• UPS Ground: Time-sensitive shipments, premium customers
• FedEx Ground: Cost-sensitive shipments with flexible timing
• USPS Ground Advantage: Low-value items where cost trumps speed

Multi-carrier shipping software can automatically route each package to the optimal carrier based on destination, urgency, and cost parameters.

Action plan for merchants

Transform on-time delivery data into operational improvements with these concrete steps.

Establish KPIs & SLAs

Set clear performance standards:

• Minimum acceptable OTD: 95% for UPS Ground
• Review frequency: Monthly performance analysis
• Escalation triggers: Two consecutive months below 93%
• Customer communication: Proactive updates for late shipments

Automate late-shipment alerts

Implement tracking notifications that alert your team when shipments exceed expected delivery dates. Many shipping platforms offer automated alerts when packages show “exception” status or miss delivery commitments.

Negotiate refunds/credits

While UPS Ground offers no service guarantee, high-volume shippers can often negotiate performance credits or rate adjustments based on actual delivery performance. Document your on-time data to support these discussions during contract renewals.

Continuous improvement loop

Monthly performance reviews should identify:

• Problematic shipping lanes or zones
• Seasonal performance patterns
• Opportunities to upgrade service levels for critical shipments
• Alternative carrier testing for underperforming routes

Third-party audits & methodologies

Independent auditing firms provide the most reliable on-time delivery data, as they track actual shipment performance rather than carrier-reported statistics.

ShipMatrix approach

ShipMatrix calculates on-time percentage by comparing actual delivery dates against the committed delivery window for each service level. Their methodology:

On-Time Percentage = (Total On-Time Deliveries ÷ Total Deliveries) × 100

ShipMatrix tracks millions of shipments across all major carriers, providing industry-standard benchmarks. They exclude carrier-reported exceptions in their “raw” OTP calculations but also publish adjusted figures that account for legitimate delays.

Convey by project44 approach

Project44’s Convey platform uses predictive analytics to forecast delivery dates and measure carrier performance against those predictions. Their approach factors in historical performance, current network conditions, and seasonal adjustments to provide dynamic on-time calculations.

Internal merchant data vs. public reports

Merchant-specific performance often differs from published industry averages due to factors like shipping zones, package characteristics, and pickup timing. A retailer shipping primarily within 1-2 zones may see 98%+ on-time rates, while those shipping coast-to-coast might experience lower performance.

Interpreting “high 90s” marketing language

When carriers tout “high 90s” on-time performance, the actual figures typically range from 94-98% depending on measurement methodology and time period. Peak season performance usually drops 2-4 percentage points from annual averages due to increased volume and weather challenges.

Frequently asked questions

How does UPS calculate on-time delivery for Ground?

UPS measures on-time delivery against the committed delivery date shown at checkout, counting only business days (Monday-Friday) in transit time calculations. Weekend days are excluded unless Saturday delivery is specifically selected.

Is the UPS Ground service guarantee back in 2025?

No, UPS Ground does not offer a service guarantee or refund for late deliveries. Only UPS Express and Air services include guaranteed delivery with refund eligibility.

Does UPS include Saturday in its Ground delivery commitment?

Standard UPS Ground delivers Monday-Friday only. Saturday delivery is available in select markets for an additional fee but isn’t included in standard Ground service commitments.

Who audits UPS on-time performance?

Independent firms like ShipMatrix and Convey by project44 track carrier performance using millions of shipment data points. These audits provide more reliable data than carrier-reported statistics.

What is considered a late UPS Ground package?

Any package delivered after the committed delivery date shown on the tracking page is considered late. UPS excludes certain exceptions (weather, address issues) from guarantee calculations, though Ground has no guarantee regardless.

How do weather exceptions affect UPS OTD statistics?

UPS excludes weather delays from service guarantee calculations for Express/Air services. For Ground service (which has no guarantee), weather delays still count against published on-time statistics in third-party audits.

Can merchants claim refunds for Ground late deliveries?

No, UPS Ground offers no service guarantee or refund for late delivery. Only guaranteed services (Express, Air) are eligible for refunds when delivered late.

How does UPS Ground OTD compare with FedEx Ground today?

UPS Ground significantly outperforms FedEx Ground, with 96.5% vs. 91.8% on-time rates in December 2024 according to ShipMatrix audits.

Are residential and commercial OTD rates different?

Yes, commercial deliveries typically show 1-2% higher on-time rates due to consistent delivery addresses and business-hour availability. Residential deliveries face more variables like incorrect addresses and recipient availability.

How can I track real-time UPS Ground reliability for my store?

Export shipment data from UPS Billing Center, calculate actual vs. committed delivery dates, and create monthly performance dashboards. Many shipping platforms also offer built-in carrier performance analytics.

Key takeaways

UPS Ground maintains its position as the most reliable ground shipping service in 2025, but merchants need to look beyond industry averages to optimize their shipping strategy.

• Industry leadership: UPS Ground’s 96.5% on-time rate significantly outperforms competitors
• No guarantee protection: Unlike Express services, Ground offers no refunds for late delivery
• Performance varies by route: Your specific zones and shipping patterns may yield different results
• Measurement matters: Track performance against customer expectations, not just carrier SLAs

Action items for merchants:

1. Audit your current performance using UPS Billing Center data exports
2. Set realistic customer expectations based on your actual delivery patterns
3. Consider multi-carrier strategies for different shipment types and destinations
4. Monitor performance monthly and adjust carrier mix based on results

The key to shipping success isn’t just choosing the most reliable carrier—it’s understanding how that reliability translates to your specific business needs and customer expectations. UPS Ground’s industry-leading performance makes it the smart choice for time-sensitive shipments, but smart merchants use data to optimize their entire shipping strategy.

Sources & references

• Digital Commerce 360 — ShipMatrix December 2024 carrier performance audit
• UPS About Us — Official UPS holiday performance announcement
• Project44 Blog — On-time performance measurement methodology
• ShipMatrix — Independent carrier performance auditing platform
• ShipScience UPS Billing Center Guide — Data export and tracking guidance