What is the projected growth of Black Friday sales? (2025 & beyond)

Black Friday sales are projected to grow at a moderate but steady pace through 2025 and 2026, with Adobe Analytics forecasting U.S. online spending reaching approximately $10.8-$11.9 billion in 2025—representing continued growth from 2024’s record $10.8 billion. This sustained momentum is fueled by higher mobile checkout rates, expanded Buy Now Pay Later adoption, and retailers extending promotional periods into October.

The National Retail Federation forecasts overall U.S. retail sales growth of 2.7% to 3.7% in 2025, while Adobe Analytics projects continued ecommerce expansion driven by mobile commerce and AI-powered personalization. However, economic headwinds including inflation and consumer financial strain may temper growth compared to pandemic-era surges.

Numbers at a glance

• $10.8-11.9 billion projected U.S. online Black Friday sales range for 2025
• $10.8 billion actual U.S. online sales in 2024 (+10.2% YoY)
• 73% projected mobile share of Black Friday purchases in 2025
• $686.3 million BNPL contribution to online Black Friday sales in 2024 (+8.8% YoY)
• 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for online sales 2020-2024
• 2.7-3.7% NRF forecast for overall U.S. retail sales growth in 2025

Black Friday by the numbers – where we stand

The 2024 Black Friday shopping event delivered record-breaking results that provide a strong foundation for future growth projections. Understanding these baseline figures is crucial for retailers planning their 2025 strategies and beyond.

2024 final results show continued momentum

Black Friday 2024 generated $10.8 billion in U.S. online sales according to Adobe Analytics, representing a robust 10.2% increase over 2023’s $9.8 billion. This marked the highest single-day online spending in Black Friday history, with total U.S. retail sales (including brick-and-mortar) reaching approximately $20 billion.

Adobe’s data, which tracks over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and covers the majority of top online retailers, shows this growth reflects strong consumer demand despite economic uncertainties. The performance exceeded many analysts’ expectations and demonstrates the enduring appeal of Black Friday promotions.

Globally, Black Friday online sales hit $74.4 billion in 2024, up 5% from the previous year. The strong performance was driven by several key factors: increased mobile adoption (69% of purchases), expanded BNPL usage ($686.3 million in transactions), and retailers’ strategic decision to extend promotional periods beyond the traditional single day.

Long-term trend analysis reveals steady growth

Historical data shows Black Friday online sales have maintained consistent upward momentum despite occasional fluctuations. The compound annual growth rate from 2020 to 2024 stands at 4.6%, demonstrating resilient consumer demand even through economic uncertainty.

Year	U.S. Online Sales	YoY Growth Rate
2020	$9.03 billion	—
2021	$8.92 billion	-1.22%
2022	$9.12 billion	+2.24%
2023	$9.8 billion	+7.46%
2024	$10.8 billion	+10.2%

The 2021 decline reflected pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and shifted consumer behavior, while subsequent years show recovery and acceleration. This trajectory supports projections for continued growth through 2025-2026, though at more moderate rates than the exceptional 2024 performance.

Forecast methodologies explained

Understanding how industry analysts develop Black Friday projections helps retailers evaluate the reliability of growth estimates and plan accordingly. Different organizations use varying approaches, each with distinct strengths and limitations.

Macroeconomic baselines drive projections

Leading forecasting firms incorporate several macroeconomic indicators into their Black Friday models. The National Retail Federation considers inflation rates, employment levels, consumer confidence indices, and disposable income trends when developing their 2.7-3.7% retail growth forecast for 2025.

Current economic conditions present a mixed picture: while employment remains relatively stable and real wage gains support consumer spending, 57% of consumers report feeling financially strained according to PwC’s 2024 consumer survey. This tension between economic stability and consumer sentiment creates uncertainty in growth projections.

Interest rates, inflation expectations, and potential policy changes including tariffs also factor into forecasting models. The NRF notes that while tariffs are difficult to measure precisely in terms of retail impact, they influence projections through higher inflation and slower economic activity.

Data sources offer different perspectives

Multiple organizations track Black Friday performance using distinct methodologies. Adobe Analytics monitors real-time transactions across its extensive network of retail clients, providing precise spending data. The National Retail Federation conducts comprehensive consumer surveys and aggregates retailer reports to develop broader market insights.

Bain & Company focuses on macroeconomic modeling, projecting 4% holiday retail growth for 2025 based on GDP forecasts, consumer spending patterns, and historical correlations. Each approach has strengths and limitations that retailers must consider when planning.

2025 & 2026 growth projections

Industry consensus points toward continued but moderated growth as Black Friday matures and economic conditions normalize post-pandemic. The projections reflect both opportunities and challenges facing retailers.

Consensus view suggests steady expansion

Most analysts project U.S. online Black Friday sales will maintain current levels around $10.8-11.9 billion in 2025, representing 0-10% year-over-year growth depending on economic conditions. This range reflects varying assumptions about consumer spending power, competitive dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions.

Adobe’s preliminary forecasts suggest growth will continue but at more moderate rates than 2024’s exceptional 10.2% increase. Their data shows continued investment in user experience improvements and personalization technologies supporting conversion rate growth, though economic headwinds may limit overall spending increases.

The National Retail Federation’s broader retail forecast of 2.7-3.7% growth suggests Black Friday will likely track within this range, possibly on the higher end due to promotional intensity and the event’s established consumer appeal.

High and low scenarios bracket expectations

Optimistic scenario (8-12% growth): Strong employment, controlled inflation, and successful retailer innovations in mobile commerce and personalization could drive Black Friday 2025 online sales to $11.7-12.1 billion. This scenario assumes continued BNPL adoption, effective inventory management, and no major supply chain disruptions.

Factors supporting the optimistic case include improving consumer confidence, successful AI implementation in retail, and continued shift from brick-and-mortar to online shopping. Early promotional strategies that capture October spending could also boost overall seasonal performance.

Conservative scenario (0-4% growth): Economic headwinds, reduced consumer confidence, or supply chain disruptions could limit growth to $10.8-11.2 billion. This reflects potential impacts from geopolitical tensions, interest rate changes, or unexpected economic shocks that dampen consumer spending.

The conservative scenario also considers market saturation effects, where Black Friday’s growth rate naturally moderates as the event matures and faces increased competition from other promotional periods throughout the year.

CAGR projections through 2026

Extending the 2020-2024 CAGR of 4.6% forward suggests U.S. online Black Friday sales could reach $12.3 billion by 2026. However, this mechanical projection doesn’t account for market saturation effects or changing consumer behavior patterns that may emerge as the event matures.

More sophisticated modeling suggests 2026 growth may moderate to 3-6% annually, reflecting the natural evolution of promotional events and increased competition from year-round sales periods. This would place 2026 online sales in the $11.1-12.6 billion range.

Growth drivers to watch

Several technological and behavioral trends will shape Black Friday’s trajectory over the next two years, creating both opportunities and challenges for retailers.

Mobile commerce dominance accelerates

Mobile devices accounted for 69% of Black Friday purchases in 2024, and this share is projected to reach 73% in 2025. This shift reflects improved mobile checkout experiences, widespread adoption of digital wallets, and retailers’ investment in mobile-first design.

The mobile trend creates significant opportunities for retailers who optimize their mobile experiences and serious challenges for those who don’t. Adobe data shows mobile conversion rates have improved significantly, reducing the historical gap between mobile and desktop performance.

Mobile shopping also enables new behaviors like social commerce integration, where consumers discover products through social media and complete purchases seamlessly within mobile apps. This trend particularly benefits retailers with strong social media presence and influencer partnerships.

BNPL expansion continues despite maturation

Buy Now Pay Later services contributed $686.3 million to Black Friday 2024 online sales, an 8.8% increase over 2023. While growth rates are slowing as the industry matures, BNPL usage is expected to exceed 100 million users by 2027, with per-user spending rising to approximately $1,380.

November 2024 set a record for BNPL spending at $9.5 billion for the month, highlighting these services’ growing role in holiday shopping. The trend particularly benefits retailers selling higher-priced items, as BNPL removes immediate payment barriers for consumers.

However, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with potential changes to credit reporting requirements and consumer protection rules. Retailers should monitor these developments and ensure their BNPL partnerships remain compliant with evolving regulations.

Early deal elongation reshapes shopping patterns

Retailers increasingly launch Black Friday promotions in October, extending the traditional single-day event into a month-long shopping season. This trend helps retailers manage inventory and logistics while giving consumers more time to research and purchase.

The elongation strategy also helps retailers compete with Amazon Prime Day and other promotional events, creating multiple peak shopping periods throughout the year. However, it may dilute the urgency that traditionally drove Black Friday’s concentrated sales spike.

Data suggests consumers are adapting to this new pattern, with October promotional sales growing 15-20% year-over-year in 2024. This shift requires retailers to rethink their promotional calendars and inventory planning to maintain momentum across extended periods.

AI-powered personalization boosts average order value

Retailers using AI-driven personalization see 15-20% higher average order values during promotional periods according to industry data. Machine learning algorithms help retailers optimize product recommendations, pricing strategies, and inventory allocation in real-time.

These technologies become particularly valuable during high-traffic events like Black Friday, where personalized experiences can differentiate retailers in crowded markets. AI also enables dynamic pricing adjustments based on demand patterns and competitive positioning.

Investment in AI capabilities may become a key competitive advantage for 2025 and beyond, as consumers increasingly expect personalized shopping experiences across all channels.

Implications for retailers

Black Friday’s projected growth creates both opportunities and challenges that require strategic planning and operational excellence across multiple dimensions.

Inventory and supply chain timing

Retailers should plan inventory levels assuming 5-7% baseline growth in online demand, with flexibility to scale up for optimistic scenarios. Supply chain lead times remain extended compared to pre-pandemic norms, making August inventory commitments crucial for Black Friday success.

The shift toward mobile commerce also affects inventory planning, as mobile shoppers often prefer different product categories and price points than desktop users. Retailers need granular demand forecasting that accounts for channel-specific preferences and seasonal variations.

Cross-docking and just-in-time inventory strategies become more complex during extended promotional periods, requiring sophisticated logistics coordination to maintain stock levels across multiple sales channels.

Marketing spend allocation strategies

Paid search accounts for approximately 29% of Black Friday traffic according to Adobe data, making search engine marketing a critical investment area. However, the extended promotional period means retailers must balance early October awareness campaigns with peak-day conversion tactics.

Social media and influencer marketing are gaining importance, particularly for reaching mobile-first younger consumers. Retailers should allocate 15-20% of their Black Friday marketing budgets to social platforms and creator partnerships, with emphasis on video content and authentic product demonstrations.

Email marketing remains highly effective for customer retention and repeat purchases, with personalized promotional sequences generating 25-30% higher engagement rates than generic campaigns during peak shopping periods.

Site performance and queuing solutions

Black Friday’s concentrated traffic creates technical challenges that can derail sales performance. Retailers should implement queuing solutions and load balancing systems to handle traffic spikes, particularly during mobile peak hours between 6-9 PM.

Case studies from 2024 show retailers with robust technical infrastructure achieved 15-25% higher conversion rates during peak traffic periods. Investment in site performance pays direct dividends in sales results and customer satisfaction.

Content delivery networks (CDNs) and edge computing solutions become essential for maintaining fast page load times across global audiences, particularly as international Black Friday adoption continues growing.

Risks and headwinds

Several factors could constrain Black Friday growth below current projections, requiring retailers to develop contingency plans and risk mitigation strategies.

Price-sensitive consumers create margin pressure

PwC research indicates 57% of consumers feel financially strained, leading to increased price sensitivity and promotional expectations. This dynamic pressures retailers to offer deeper discounts, potentially eroding profit margins even as sales volumes grow.

The trend toward deal elongation may also train consumers to expect promotional pricing year-round, making it harder for retailers to maintain regular pricing power outside peak shopping periods. This creates a promotional treadmill effect that can damage long-term profitability.

Retailers must balance competitive pricing with margin preservation, potentially through improved operational efficiency, better supplier negotiations, or value-added services that justify premium pricing.

Regulatory shifts affect BNPL landscape

Growing regulatory scrutiny of Buy Now Pay Later services could impact their availability or terms, potentially slowing adoption rates. Changes to credit reporting requirements or consumer protection rules might affect BNPL’s appeal to both retailers and consumers.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has increased oversight of BNPL providers, potentially leading to stricter lending standards or disclosure requirements. Retailers should diversify their payment options to avoid over-dependence on any single BNPL provider.

Potential shipping bottlenecks threaten delivery promises

Capacity constraints in last-mile delivery networks could create fulfillment challenges, particularly if Black Friday growth exceeds carrier expectations. Retailers dependent on expedited shipping may face service disruptions or cost increases.

The concentration of demand during extended promotional periods may strain logistics networks differently than traditional single-day peaks, requiring new capacity planning approaches and backup fulfillment strategies.

Weather-related disruptions, labor shortages, or infrastructure limitations could compound these challenges, making diversified shipping partnerships and clear customer communication essential for maintaining satisfaction.

Action checklist for 2025 Black Friday success

Retailers can maximize their Black Friday performance by implementing these strategic priorities:

Demand planning: Forecast inventory needs using a 5-7% baseline growth assumption, with 15% upside buffer for key categories. Lock in supplier commitments by August to ensure adequate stock levels across all channels.

Mobile optimization: Prioritize mobile checkout improvements and ensure all promotional content renders effectively on smartphones. Test mobile payment integrations thoroughly before peak traffic periods, including digital wallet compatibility.

Early promotion strategy: Launch teaser campaigns in mid-October to capture early shopping demand. Develop content calendars that maintain engagement throughout the extended promotional period while preserving peak-day urgency.

Technical infrastructure: Implement queuing systems and load balancing to handle traffic spikes. Conduct stress testing at 150% of projected peak traffic levels and establish backup systems for critical functions.

BNPL integration: Partner with established BNPL providers to offer flexible payment options. Ensure these integrations work seamlessly across mobile and desktop experiences while monitoring regulatory developments.

Frequently asked questions

How much will Black Friday sales grow in 2025?

Industry analysts project U.S. online Black Friday sales will grow 0-10% in 2025, potentially reaching $10.8-11.9 billion compared to 2024’s $10.8 billion. Growth depends on economic conditions and consumer spending power.

Is Black Friday growth outpacing Cyber Monday?

Black Friday online growth has been stronger than Cyber Monday in recent years, with 2024 showing 10.2% growth for Black Friday versus 7.3% for Cyber Monday. Mobile commerce adoption particularly benefits Black Friday shopping patterns.

What factors drive Black Friday spending increases?

Key growth drivers include mobile commerce expansion (73% of purchases projected for 2025), BNPL adoption, AI-powered personalization, and extended promotional periods starting in October. Economic conditions and consumer confidence also significantly impact spending levels.

Will inflation hurt Black Friday sales?

Inflation creates mixed effects—while it pressures consumer budgets (57% report financial strain), it also inflates nominal sales figures. Retailers may need to offer deeper discounts to maintain unit sales growth, potentially impacting profit margins.

How big is mobile’s contribution to Black Friday revenue?

Mobile devices generated 69% of Black Friday purchases in 2024, projected to reach 73% in 2025. This represents approximately $7.4 billion in mobile sales for 2024, making mobile optimization crucial for retailer success.

What industries benefit most from Black Friday growth?

Electronics, apparel, and home goods traditionally see the largest Black Friday sales volumes. However, beauty, fitness, and specialty categories are growing faster as consumers expand their promotional shopping beyond traditional categories.

How reliable are Black Friday sales projections?

Projections carry inherent uncertainty due to economic volatility, consumer behavior changes, and external factors. Historical accuracy varies, with most forecasts falling within 10-15% of actual results when economic conditions remain stable.

What is the historical CAGR of Black Friday sales?

U.S. online Black Friday sales showed a 4.6% compound annual growth rate from 2020-2024. However, this includes pandemic-related volatility, with more normalized growth rates likely settling around 4-6% annually going forward.

Key takeaways

• Moderate growth expected: Black Friday online sales projected to grow 0-10% annually through 2026, reaching $10.8-11.9 billion in 2025
• Mobile dominance continues: Mobile commerce will account for 73% of Black Friday purchases by 2025, making mobile optimization essential
• Extended promotional periods: October deal launches are becoming standard, requiring retailers to plan longer promotional campaigns
• BNPL integration critical: Buy Now Pay Later services contributed $686.3 million in 2024 and continue growing despite regulatory scrutiny
• Economic headwinds present: 57% of consumers report financial strain, creating price sensitivity that may pressure margins
• AI personalization advantage: Retailers using AI-driven personalization see 15-20% higher average order values during promotional periods
• Supply chain planning crucial: August inventory commitments necessary due to extended lead times and projected 5-7% demand growth
• Technical infrastructure investment: Robust site performance and queuing solutions can improve conversion rates by 15-25% during peak traffic

Sources & references

• Adobe Analytics Black Friday 2024 Report — Official transaction data covering $10.8B in sales
• National Retail Federation 2025 Forecast — 2.7-3.7% retail growth projection
• PwC Holiday Outlook 2024 — Consumer financial strain survey data
• Black Friday Statistics Database — Historical sales trends and mobile commerce data
• Digital Commerce 360 — Industry analysis and growth projections