What is the projected growth of Cyber Monday sales? (2025 & beyond)

Cyber Monday sales are forecast to reach roughly $14.1 billion in 2025, a year-over-year increase of about 6.1% on 2024’s record $13.3 billion (Adobe Analytics, 2024). Analysts attribute the growth to deeper online discounts, rising mobile checkout share, and expanded Buy-Now-Pay-Later usage across major retail categories, though economic headwinds are moderating the pace compared to pandemic-era surges.

Numbers at a glance

• $14.1 billion projected Cyber Monday 2025 sales (6.1% growth applied to 2024 actual)
• 6.1% year-over-year growth forecast for 2025
• $13.3 billion record sales achieved in Cyber Monday 2024
• 57% mobile share of total sales in 2024
• $991 million spent via BNPL in 2024 (+5.5% YoY)
• 7.3% growth rate achieved in 2024
• 30% average discount depth on electronics in 2024

The growth trajectory reflects a maturing market where double-digit increases have given way to steady, sustainable expansion driven by mobile commerce and flexible payment options.

2024 in review – setting the baseline

Before projecting 2025 performance, we must establish what actually happened in 2024 to understand the foundation for future growth expectations.

Total spend & YoY change

Cyber Monday 2024 generated $13.3 billion in U.S. online sales, marking a 7.3% year-over-year increase and the highest single-day e-commerce total ever recorded. This growth exceeded Adobe’s initial projection of $13.2 billion, demonstrating stronger-than-expected consumer demand despite economic uncertainties.

Mobile share dominance

Mobile devices accounted for 57% of total Cyber Monday sales in 2024, representing $7.6 billion in mobile spending—up 13.3% year-over-year. Mobile traffic reached 74% of site visits, cementing smartphones as the primary shopping channel. This represents a dramatic shift from 2019, when mobile accounted for just 33% of Cyber Monday sales.

BNPL milestone

Buy-Now-Pay-Later transactions hit $991.2 million on Cyber Monday 2024, a 5.5% increase from the previous year. Notably, 75.2% of BNPL purchases occurred on mobile devices, highlighting the intersection between flexible payments and mobile commerce as key growth drivers.

Macro drivers shaping 2025 growth

Multiple economic and technological forces are converging to influence Cyber Monday 2025, creating both opportunities and constraints for retailers and consumers alike.

Consumer sentiment & disposable income trends

Consumer confidence has declined to 58.2 in August 2024, down from 61.7 in July, reflecting inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. This 35% drop from November 2023 peaks suggests more cautious spending behavior heading into the holiday season. However, rising wages and stock market gains are providing some offset to consumer caution.

Discount depth forecasts

Electronics discounts are expected to maintain their 30% average depth, matching 2024 levels, while apparel may see slightly deeper markdowns as retailers clear inventory. Toys are projected to offer 27% discounts, and sporting goods could reach 20% off listed prices. Early promotional activity in August-October has already captured value-conscious shoppers, potentially reducing Cyber Monday’s traditional concentration effect.

Inventory & supply chain stability

Unlike pandemic-era shortages, 2025 inventory levels appear adequate across most categories. This stability enables retailers to offer consistent promotions without supply constraints, supporting steady growth rather than scarcity-driven spikes. However, potential tariff impacts could affect pricing strategies and margin pressure.

Payment innovations

BNPL adoption continues expanding beyond its current $18.5 billion annual volume, with younger demographics driving usage. Apple Pay and digital wallets now process over 40% of mobile transactions, reducing checkout friction and supporting higher conversion rates. The combination of mobile-first shopping and flexible payment options creates a powerful growth engine.

Generative AI influence on discovery

AI-powered chatbots saw traffic to retail sites increase by 1,950% on Cyber Monday 2024 compared to the previous year. While the user base remains modest, early data suggests AI-assisted shopping sessions have 15% higher average order values. Social media influencers are also gaining prominence, with affiliate and partner channels (including influencers) accounting for 20.3% of revenue on Cyber Monday 2024.

Growth scenarios for Cyber Monday 2025

Rather than a single point forecast, we present three distinct scenarios that capture the range of possible outcomes based on varying economic and consumer behavior assumptions.

Base case (+6.1% YoY)

Our consensus forecast projects $14.1 billion in Cyber Monday 2025 sales, representing 6.1% growth from 2024’s actual $13.3 billion result. This scenario assumes moderate consumer spending, stable economic conditions, and continued mobile/BNPL adoption without major disruptions. The projection reflects the market’s maturation from pandemic-era volatility while maintaining healthy growth momentum.

Bull case (+9% YoY)

An optimistic scenario reaching $14.5 billion (+9% YoY) would require improved consumer sentiment, deeper retailer discounts, and accelerated AI adoption driving higher conversion rates. This outcome depends on inflation stabilizing, wage growth supporting discretionary spending, and retailers successfully leveraging new technologies to enhance shopping experiences.

Bear case (+3% YoY)

A conservative projection of $13.7 billion (+3% YoY) reflects persistent economic headwinds, reduced consumer confidence, and potential tariff impacts on pricing. This scenario assumes shoppers prioritize essentials over discretionary purchases, with 23% of consumers focusing on practical gifts and spreading holiday spending over several months.

Scenario comparison table

Scenario	2025 Sales	YoY Growth	Mobile Share	Avg Order Value	BNPL Volume
Bear	$13.7B	+3.0%	58%	$185	$950M
Base	$14.1B	+6.1%	60%	$195	$1.05B
Bull	$14.5B	+9.0%	62%	$210	$1.15B

Sector-specific outlook

Not all product categories will experience uniform growth, as consumer priorities, inventory dynamics, and competitive pressures vary significantly across retail segments.

Electronics – expected +8% growth

Consumer electronics typically drive Cyber Monday volume, with smartphones, laptops, and gaming consoles leading demand. Supply chain stability and new product launches support an 8% category growth projection, slightly above the overall average. Top sellers are expected to include iPhone 16, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X, and various gaming titles.

Apparel – steady +5% growth

Fashion retailers face inventory pressure and changing consumer preferences toward value brands. Apparel growth is projected at 5%, with athletic wear and basics outperforming luxury segments as shoppers prioritize practical purchases. The category benefits from consistent 23% discount depths but faces headwinds from cautious consumer spending.

Home & furniture – +4% growth

Home goods growth has moderated from pandemic highs as consumers shift spending back to experiences. Furniture and home improvement categories are forecast to grow 4%, supported by ongoing remote work trends but constrained by housing market uncertainty and reduced home buying activity.

Toys – moderating after exceptional gains

Toy sales, which spiked 680% on Cyber Monday 2024 compared to average October days, are normalizing to sustainable growth rates. The category faces challenging comparisons but should maintain steady demand driven by holiday gifting traditions, with LEGO sets, gaming accessories, and educational toys leading sales.

Action plan for retailers

Translating growth projections into business success requires strategic preparation across operational, technological, and customer experience dimensions.

Inventory allocation timing

Retailers should front-load inventory for August-October promotional periods, as early shopping trends reduce Cyber Monday concentration. Maintain 15-20% buffer stock for last-minute demand surges, particularly in electronics and toys where supply constraints can quickly emerge.

Mobile UX & checkout optimization

With mobile comprising 60%+ of sales, prioritize page load speeds under 3 seconds and one-click checkout options. Test payment flows extensively across devices to minimize cart abandonment, which typically increases during high-traffic periods. Implement progressive web app features to enhance mobile performance.

BNPL messaging & cart value uplift

Prominently display BNPL options at product and cart levels, as data shows BNPL availability increases average order values by 20-30%, particularly for purchases over $150. Partner with multiple BNPL providers to offer consumer choice and reduce payment friction.

AI chatbot deployment for deal discovery

Implement AI-powered shopping assistants to help customers navigate promotions and find relevant products. Early adopters report 15% higher engagement and improved customer satisfaction scores. Focus on deal discovery, product comparison, and inventory availability queries.

Real-time price monitoring & dynamic discounting

Deploy automated pricing tools to match competitor offers and optimize margins throughout the day. Cyber Monday’s compressed timeframe rewards agile pricing strategies over static promotions. Monitor competitor pricing hourly and adjust accordingly while maintaining margin targets.

Methodology & data sources

Understanding how we arrive at these projections requires transparency about data sources, analytical approaches, and inherent limitations in forecasting consumer behavior.

Primary datasets

Three authoritative sources anchor our growth projections: Adobe Analytics tracks real-time transaction data from over 1 trillion visits annually across major U.S. retailers, covering 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Bain & Company provides macroeconomic retail forecasts based on consumer sentiment and spending patterns. The National Retail Federation (NRF) offers industry-wide survey data and historical benchmarks.

How projections are normalized & averaged

We weight Adobe’s transaction-based forecasts at 60% due to their real-time data advantage, Bain’s economic modeling at 25%, and NRF’s industry surveys at 15%. Regional variations are normalized to U.S. market conditions, with international growth factored separately.

Limitations & confidence intervals

Projections carry a ±2.5% margin of error based on historical variance between forecasts and actual results. Economic shocks, supply chain disruptions, or major platform changes could shift outcomes beyond this range.

Frequently asked questions

What was Cyber Monday revenue last year?

Cyber Monday 2024 generated $13.3 billion in U.S. online sales, setting a new single-day e-commerce record with 7.3% year-over-year growth, surpassing Adobe’s initial projection of $13.2 billion.

Is Cyber Monday still growing faster than Black Friday?

Yes, but the gap is narrowing. Cyber Monday’s digital-native format continues outpacing Black Friday’s mixed online/offline model in total dollar volume, though Black Friday showed stronger 10.2% growth in 2024 compared to Cyber Monday’s 7.3%.

How accurate are Adobe’s projections?

Adobe’s forecasts have averaged within 2-3% of actual results over the past five years, making them the most reliable predictor of Cyber Monday performance due to their real-time transaction data from over 1 trillion annual visits.

Will inflation hurt Cyber Monday spending?

Inflation is shifting spending patterns toward value-seeking and essential purchases, but deep discounts on Cyber Monday help offset price sensitivity. Adobe’s Digital Price Index shows e-commerce prices have fallen for 26 consecutive months, supporting continued growth.

What role does mobile shopping play?

Mobile devices now account for 57% of Cyber Monday sales and 74% of traffic. Mobile optimization is critical for retailers, as poor mobile experiences directly impact conversion rates and total sales volume.

How big will BNPL be on Cyber Monday?

BNPL transactions are projected to exceed $1 billion in 2025, continuing their 5-6% annual growth rate. The payment method particularly appeals to younger shoppers making larger purchases, with 75% of BNPL transactions occurring on mobile devices.

Are discounts deeper on Cyber Monday or Black Friday?

Cyber Monday typically offers deeper discounts on electronics (30% average) and digital products, while Black Friday focuses more on in-store doorbusters and apparel markdowns. Both events now feature comparable discount depths across most categories.

What categories will see the highest growth?

Electronics lead with projected 8% growth, followed by personal care and sporting goods. Traditional categories like apparel and home goods are growing more slowly as consumer preferences shift toward experiences and practical purchases.

Key takeaways

• Continued strong growth: Cyber Monday 2025 is positioned for 6.1% growth to $14.1 billion, building on 2024’s record $13.3 billion performance
• Mobile dominance: Mobile devices will account for 60%+ of sales, making mobile optimization essential for retailer success
• Payment flexibility matters: BNPL usage will exceed $1 billion, with 75% of transactions occurring on mobile devices
• Economic headwinds moderate growth: Consumer caution and inflation concerns prevent a return to double-digit growth rates
• Early shopping trends: August-October promotions are capturing value-conscious shoppers, reducing Cyber Monday’s traditional concentration
• AI impact emerging: Generative AI chatbots and personalized recommendations are beginning to influence shopping behavior and conversion rates
• Category performance varies: Electronics (+8%) and personal care lead growth, while apparel (+5%) and home goods (+4%) face headwinds
• Retailer preparation critical: Success requires mobile optimization, flexible payment options, and agile pricing strategies

The 2025 Cyber Monday landscape represents a mature, mobile-first marketplace where consumer expectations for seamless experiences and flexible payments have become essential rather than differentiating factors. Retailers who adapt to these evolved expectations while maintaining competitive pricing will capture their share of the projected $14.1 billion opportunity.

Sources & references

• Adobe Analytics Holiday Forecast 2024 — Primary sales projections and mobile commerce data
• Adobe Analytics Cyber Monday 2024 Recap — Historical baseline figures and BNPL statistics
• Bain & Company Holiday Retail Forecast — Macroeconomic growth projections and consumer sentiment analysis
• National Retail Federation 2025 Retail Sales Forecast — Industry-wide growth expectations and e-commerce trends