What share of global retail sales is ecommerce?

Ecommerce captured 20.1% of all retail sales worldwide in 2024, marking the first time online retail has crossed the 20% threshold globally. This figure represents a steady climb from 19.4% in 2023 and reflects the continued digital transformation of consumer shopping habits across all regions and demographics.

The 2024 milestone comes five years after ecommerce held just 16% of global retail sales in 2019, underscoring how rapidly online commerce has reshaped the retail landscape—even as pandemic-driven growth rates have normalized.

Numbers at a glance

• 20.1% — Global ecommerce share of retail sales (2024)
• 19.4% — Previous year’s share (2023)
• $6.4 trillion — Total global ecommerce sales volume (2024)
• 57% — Asia-Pacific’s share of global ecommerce revenue
• 22.6% — Projected global share by 2027
• 2.4x — Growth multiplier since 2019 (16% → 20.1%)

Five-year trendline (2019-2024)

The path to 20% has been marked by steady growth punctuated by a significant pandemic acceleration, followed by a return to more sustainable expansion rates.

Year-by-year progression

Year	Global Ecommerce Share	Annual Change	Key Drivers
2019	16.0%	—	Pre-pandemic baseline
2020	19.0%	+3.0pp	COVID-19 lockdowns, store closures
2021	18.8%	-0.2pp	Partial return to physical retail
2022	18.6%	-0.2pp	Economic uncertainty, inflation
2023	19.4%	+0.8pp	Recovery and mobile commerce growth
2024	20.1%	+0.7pp	Cross-border trade, social commerce

Source: Oberlo analysis of eMarketer data

Pandemic spike explained

The dramatic 3-percentage-point jump in 2020 represented the largest single-year increase in ecommerce penetration on record. Government-mandated store closures, work-from-home policies, and consumer safety concerns accelerated online adoption by an estimated 2-3 years compared to pre-pandemic projections.

The slight decline in 2021-2022 reflected a partial “normalization” as physical stores reopened and consumers resumed in-person shopping for categories like apparel and dining. However, the baseline never returned to pre-2020 levels, indicating permanent behavioral shifts.

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis

From 2019 to 2024, ecommerce’s share grew at a compound annual rate of 4.7% in percentage-point terms. This translates to actual sales volume growth of approximately 15-18% annually when factoring in overall retail market expansion.

Verified 2024 data — 20.1% share

The 20.1% figure comes from Oberlo’s analysis, which cites eMarketer data showing that 2024 marks the first year ecommerce has surpassed the psychologically significant 20% barrier worldwide. This represents more than $1 out of every $5 spent on retail globally being transacted digitally.

Confirmed 2023 baseline — 19.4% share

Both Oberlo and Statista confirm that ecommerce captured 19.4% of global retail sales in 2023, providing a solid baseline for measuring 2024’s growth. The year-over-year increase of 0.7 percentage points reflects steady but more moderate expansion compared to the pandemic-era surge.

These figures aggregate retail sales data from national statistical offices, major payment processors, and ecommerce platform reporting. The calculations include both business-to-consumer (B2C) transactions and exclude business-to-business (B2B) wholesale activity to maintain consistency with traditional retail metrics.

Regional breakdown — who’s above and below the average

Ecommerce penetration varies dramatically by geography, with Asia-Pacific leading global adoption while other regions show more moderate but steady growth.

Asia-Pacific dominance

Asia-Pacific accounts for over 57% of global ecommerce revenue in 2024, driven primarily by China’s massive domestic market. Within the region:

• China: Estimated 52% ecommerce penetration of total retail sales
• South Korea: ~35% penetration, highest globally for developed markets
• India: ~8% penetration but fastest growth rate (+25% annually)

China’s dominance stems from mobile-first shopping habits, integrated super-apps like WeChat and Alipay, and sophisticated logistics networks reaching rural areas.

North America — steady but moderate growth

The United States represents the second-largest ecommerce market globally, with 16.2% of retail sales occurring online in 2024 according to Oberlo data. Canada follows similar patterns at approximately 14-15% penetration.

North American growth has been more measured, constrained by:

• Strong existing physical retail infrastructure
• Consumer preference for in-store experiences in certain categories
• Geographic distances affecting last-mile delivery economics

Europe — fragmented but growing

European ecommerce penetration averages 16-18% across major markets, with significant country-level variation:

• United Kingdom: ~22% (highest in Europe)
• Germany: ~18%
• France: ~15%
• Italy/Spain: ~12-13%

Brexit, GDPR compliance costs, and cross-border logistics complexity have somewhat slowed European ecommerce growth compared to other developed regions.

Emerging markets spotlight

Latin America, Middle East, and Africa show lower absolute penetration (8-12%) but represent the fastest-growing segments:

• Brazil: Leading Latin America at ~11% penetration
• UAE: Highest Middle East penetration at ~15%
• South Africa: Leading Africa at ~4% but growing 30%+ annually

Drivers behind the rising share

Several technological and behavioral factors continue pushing ecommerce’s share of retail sales higher across all regions.

Mobile commerce adoption

Smartphone-based shopping now represents over 70% of all ecommerce transactions globally. Mobile-optimized checkout flows, one-click payment systems, and app-based shopping have eliminated traditional barriers to online purchasing.

The “mobile-first” approach has been particularly transformative in emerging markets, where consumers often skip desktop internet entirely and begin their digital commerce journey on smartphones.

Logistics & last-mile improvements

Same-day and next-day delivery options have expanded from urban centers to suburban and rural areas, making ecommerce competitive with immediate gratification from physical stores.

Key infrastructure developments include:

• Automated fulfillment centers reducing processing time
• Crowdsourced delivery networks (Uber, DoorDash expansion)
• Smart locker systems and pickup points
• Drone and autonomous vehicle pilot programs

Social & livestream commerce

Social media platforms have evolved into direct sales channels, particularly in Asia-Pacific markets. Live-streaming shopping events, influencer partnerships, and integrated checkout within social apps have created new pathways to purchase.

TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping, and Facebook Marketplace collectively process billions in transactions annually, representing a new category of “social commerce” that didn’t exist five years ago.

Looking ahead — forecasts to 2027

Industry projections show continued growth in ecommerce’s share of retail sales, though at more moderate rates than the pandemic-era surge.

Projected 22.6% share by 2027

Oberlo’s forecast, based on eMarketer projections, predicts ecommerce will capture 22.6% of global retail sales by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.7 percentage points per year from the 2024 baseline.

This projection assumes:

• Continued mobile commerce adoption in emerging markets
• Expansion of cross-border ecommerce capabilities
• Integration of augmented reality and virtual try-on technologies

Alternative scenarios — BCG’s 41% projection

Boston Consulting Group published a more aggressive forecast suggesting ecommerce could reach 41% of global retail sales by 2027. This scenario, from their “Winning Formulas for E-Commerce Growth” report, assumes:

• Accelerated adoption of B2B ecommerce platforms
• Significant expansion in grocery and fresh food delivery
• Virtual reality shopping experiences gaining mainstream adoption

BCG’s projection is based on ecommerce growing at a 9% compound annual growth rate through 2027, more than doubling the projected 4% CAGR for brick-and-mortar retail.

Risks & wild cards affecting projections

Several factors could slow or accelerate ecommerce growth:

Potential headwinds:

• Economic recession reducing discretionary spending
• Regulatory restrictions on data collection and targeted advertising
• Supply chain disruptions affecting delivery reliability
• Consumer fatigue with digital-only experiences

Potential accelerators:

• Breakthrough improvements in virtual/augmented reality shopping
• Expansion of “buy now, pay later” financing options
• Integration of cryptocurrency and blockchain payment systems
• Climate concerns driving preference for consolidated delivery over individual trips

How businesses can use this data

Understanding ecommerce’s share of retail sales provides crucial context for strategic planning across multiple business functions.

Benchmarking online penetration goals

Companies can compare their online sales percentage against the global 20.1% benchmark to assess digital transformation progress. Businesses significantly below this threshold may be missing growth opportunities, while those above it might have competitive advantages in digital channels.

Industry-specific benchmarks vary significantly –

Highest ecommerce penetration by category (US data):

• Electronics/Technology: ~35-45% of electronics retail sales occur online
• Apparel: ~25-30% of clothing retail sales occur online
• Books/Media: ~30-35% penetration

Lower penetration categories:

• Grocery/Food & beverages: ~5-10% (but fastest-growing at 16.6% annual growth)
• Home/Garden: 15-20% online penetration
• Automotive: Below average penetration (under 2-3%)

Budget allocation for digital vs. store operations

The 20% figure suggests that for every $5 in marketing spend, approximately $1 should target digital channels to match consumer behavior patterns. However, businesses should adjust this ratio based on their specific customer demographics and regional markets.

Companies operating primarily in Asia-Pacific markets might allocate 30-40% of resources to digital channels, while those focused on emerging markets might maintain 10-15% digital allocation with plans to increase over time.

Investor & board reporting context

When presenting ecommerce performance to stakeholders, the global 20.1% figure provides valuable context for growth rates and market share discussions. Companies growing faster than the 0.7 percentage point annual increase can highlight outperformance, while those lagging can use the data to justify increased digital investment.

Frequently asked questions

Is ecommerce growth slowing post-COVID?

Yes, but from historically high levels. The 0.7 percentage point increase from 2023 to 2024 represents a return to pre-pandemic growth rates after the exceptional 3-point surge in 2020. This “normalization” was expected as consumers resumed in-person shopping for certain categories.

Which sector has the highest online share?

Based on 2024 US data, electronics show the highest ecommerce penetration at approximately 54% of category sales, followed by apparel at 43% and shoes at 33%. Books and media also show high digital adoption. Grocery and automotive remain among the categories with lower online penetration, though grocery is experiencing rapid growth at 16.6% annually.

How is share calculated — GMV vs. retail sales?

The 20.1% figure represents ecommerce transactions as a percentage of total retail sales value, excluding services, B2B transactions, and digital products (software, subscriptions). This methodology ensures consistency with traditional retail measurement standards used by government statistical agencies.

What factors could reduce future ecommerce share?

Economic recession, supply chain disruptions, increased shipping costs, or major data privacy regulations could slow ecommerce growth. Additionally, improvements in physical retail experiences (augmented reality in stores, faster checkout) might recapture some online market share.

How does mobile commerce impact the percentage?

Mobile devices now account for 70%+ of ecommerce transactions globally, making smartphone optimization crucial for retailers. The mobile-first approach has been particularly important in emerging markets, where many consumers skip desktop internet entirely.

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Sources & references

• Oberlo — Ecommerce Share of Retail Sales — Primary 2024 data source citing eMarketer
• Statista — E-commerce Share of Retail Sales Worldwide — Historical data and 2023 baseline
• Boston Consulting Group — E-commerce Global Retail Sales — Alternative 41% forecast scenario for 2027
• Fashion Network — E-commerce to be 41% of global retail sales by 2027 — BCG report coverage and analysis